Downturn

[wtf89]

So with Trump imposing all these taxes and our stock going south what's that mean for us in transition employees just asking I know will be alot of smart comments but will weed through them

[brizzel]

The auto industry is a fickle beast. It's a rollercoaster ride, with its ups and downs. Always plan for the worst and hope for the best. Am I missing anymore analogies? This is the best plant to be at for any downturn in the market. This plant makes most of the profit for Ford. We have alot of people soon to be retiring in the upcoming years. It's all good!

[thisplacesux]

All these taxes and the stock market going south? The stock market is at record high levels currently. From what I understand the orders are there, our suppliers just can't keep up. This plant, especially body and paint, is running much more efficiently than it was in the past, which makes it seem like there's a slow down in orders. We ship something like 300 or so cabs a day to Ohio still because we didn't have the capacity to fill all our orders in the past. If worse comes to worse I suspect we would get those trucks back if we got slow enough. I don't suspect Ford just sunk billions of dollars into this plant just to let it sit idle. As brizzle said; you stay here long enough you WILL see a downturn. It's the nature of the beast.

[Deleted]

There's been talk of a downturn. Really we are coming off of record sales years, so sales may drop off. It's a cycle,but the media need to make money so they spin it. Gloom and doom keeps u watching the media. Happiness doesn't.

Trumps taxes on Mexican goods may make ford,and others bring parts production back to the us. Why would that be bad? All those diesels made in Mexico. Cleveland engine wanted that motor,right? Think about it....... and no ,that won't necessarily drive prices up. Production costs are not what sets retail prices for goods. Their value in the market where they are sold does.

[toddstang]

Yea, Hillary would of saved our jobs with the Transpacific trade and giving NAFTA more teeth.
Glad our dues paid for women to dress like vaginas to travel to DC and protest. Makes me proud that we pay double dues now.
Can't believe how Trump wants the American auto industry to grow. We really need to put illegals and refugees first.

[driveshaftgrunt]

Technically we're overdue for a recession, and interest rates will see nothing but upward pressure for a long while.

Auto market is expected to be at peak this year or next, with pent up demand being satisfied.

That being said, Brizzel is right, this is one of the "safer" plants because of the nature of the product.

But always spend below what you make, and always consider that they don't HAVE to have three crews to meet demand.

Worry less the more people you have under you seniority wise.

And honestly, when N. Korea looses its shit in the next couple of months and kills a quarter million people in Seoul in 20 minutes, who know what happens to global financial markets.....lol

[wtf89]

Just wondering here lately been hearing rumors of course know can't believe half of what you hear in here just different when you overhear a process coach saying there having meetings to decide c crew fate

[driveshaftgrunt]

First quarter growth was 0.3 percent. I think we move from one federal budget crisis to another over the next several months. Its kind of crap shoot right now with inflation, business investment etc....

We've satisfied pent up demand, and I don't see demand growing much.

The minute they can satisfy demand in the near to medium term with two crews, c-crews days are numbered.

I wouldn't be shocked if after U launch they take a long hard look at the need for 3 crews in final

[reedycreekbuc]

C-crew isnt going anywhere with 80,000+ order bank.

[driveshaftgrunt]

Yeah, I don't think anything is happening anytime soon.

But man, three crews and MONTHS of short work week?
That just doesn't make any sense.

They can go to 5x10 in final with tag relief and get as many trucks......

[thisplacesux]

investorplace.com/2017/04/ford-motor-company-f-stock-reverse/#.WQODXoEpCEd

[Ex-metalman]

You have to admit (never seen us short shift )for such a long period of months..And we must be meeting our demands or we would be going at least 10hrs?They have to be getting tired of paying us short work week..I hope everything stays as is.Im personally dreading going 10.7 or more this summer..One things for SURE we will be the last ones to know.

[tiger66]

Everybody I heard talking today was talking about c-crew leaving. Must. Be something going on.

[nra4life]

in 2018 C crew will be history. Once this launch is complete the screw tightening will begin. May see it stay in certain areas, stamping for sure, maybe paint or body but final will be gone for sure I'm guessing. Stay safe people.

[classof95]

One thing that concerns me is when the F150 Diesel is out and how much it will take orders away from us. I love working 4 days on days, and short shifting. Hope it lasts til im gone in 8 yrs

[wtf89]

Yeah I'm trying to stay optimistic but the way it's looking could be bad if it doesn't pick up especially for a low seniority guy with just over a year in even if they keep c crew in certain areas feel like we'll be pushed out by higher guys

[ktpveteran6499]

Apr 29, 2017 6:47:01 GMT -5 wtf89 said:

Yeah I'm trying to stay optimistic but the way it's looking could be bad if it doesn't pick up especially for a low seniority guy with just over a year in even if they keep c crew in certain areas feel like we'll be pushed out by higher guys

Hopefully C crew can last till next contract. Then maybe they'll offer some lucrative buyouts for legacy with 20+ years. Lets stay optimistic people😊

[brizzel]

All will work out in the end. This is the same crap as always. The tax incentives alone will keep c crew for at least 5 years. This tax money is not given without certain expectations of certain employment numbers.

[Ex-metalman]

Apr 29, 2017 6:47:01 GMT -5 wtf89 said:

Yeah I'm trying to stay optimistic but the way it's looking could be bad if it doesn't pick up especially for a low seniority guy with just over a year in even if they keep c crew in certain areas feel like we'll be pushed out by higher guys

Pushed out by higher guys???Thats how it works in a union plant.I mean I think these newbies should be happy,(except the Pay)Hell it takes years to hold days in body and now newbies are holding days?Im glad tho keeps me up there.

[Ex-metalman]

Apr 29, 2017 11:18:42 GMT -5 brizzel said:

All will work out in the end. This is the same crap as always. The tax incentives alone will keep c crew for at least 5 years. This tax money is not given without certain expectations of certain employment numbers.

I have to ask how does a person now this?Just asking?

[nra4life]

Apr 29, 2017 11:49:42 GMT -5 Ex-metalman said:

Apr 29, 2017 11:18:42 GMT -5 brizzel said:

All will work out in the end. This is the same crap as always. The tax incentives alone will keep c crew for at least 5 years. This tax money is not given without certain expectations of certain employment numbers.

I have to ask how does a person now this?Just asking?

By doing a simple google search. 11.2k total for both LAP/KTP. KTP is at 8500 now and not sure what LAP is at, anyone know?

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bizjournals.com/louisville/news/2016/02/25/ford-gets-another-25-million-tax-break-from.amp.html

[Ex-metalman]

Thanks brizzel ...😗

[beaner]

Just out of curiosity: how long of a notice was there last time C Crew was eliminated in final? How long from when people caught wind, really?

[rockyt]

4095 at LAP currently

[ktpveteran6499]

May 8, 2017 7:54:41 GMT -5 beaner said:

Just out of curiosity: how long of a notice was there last time C Crew was eliminated in final? How long from when people caught wind, really?

The first thing that will most likely happen is 3 crews on 5x8's. Then C crew will eventually be fazed out all together. It may not happen anytime soon, but make no mistake about it. It will happen.

[Deleted]

May 8, 2017 16:42:16 GMT -5 ktpveteran6499 said:

May 8, 2017 7:54:41 GMT -5 beaner said:

Just out of curiosity: how long of a notice was there last time C Crew was eliminated in final? How long from when people caught wind, really?

The first thing that will most likely happen is 3 crews on 5x8's. Then C crew will eventually be fazed out all together. It may not happen anytime soon, but make no mistake about it. It will happen.

On a long enough timeline,everything will happen. What's the point? I think there's a lot of overreacting goin on. We just launched the baddest truck in the world,but it's new. All new. First aluminum truck in its class after all. Once people see that it's a winner we won't be able to build enough of them. About to launch the baddest SUV on the road too. This whole "downturn" is just us coming off the bubble of a record couple of years. The rest is just people stirring the pot in hopes of scaring people who don't know better. At least it's starting to feel that way to me. No one knows what ford is gonna do,not when,not why. This plant has remained better off than most others while I've been here (1999) very few people have been forced out permanently by layoffs if any at all. Most that left took buyouts . So why all the fear mongering now?

[tiger66]

Well said. Everybody is overacting

[thisplacesux]

May 8, 2017 18:55:20 GMT -5 @ar15a2 said:

May 8, 2017 16:42:16 GMT -5 ktpveteran6499 said:

The first thing that will most likely happen is 3 crews on 5x8's. Then C crew will eventually be fazed out all together. It may not happen anytime soon, but make no mistake about it. It will happen.

On a long enough timeline,everything will happen. What's the point? I think there's a lot of overreacting goin on. We just launched the baddest truck in the world,but it's new. All new. First aluminum truck in its class after all. Once people see that it's a winner we won't be able to build enough of them. About to launch the baddest SUV on the road too. This whole "downturn" is just us coming off the bubble of a record couple of years. The rest is just people stirring the pot in hopes of scaring people who don't know better. At least it's starting to feel that way to me. No one knows what ford is gonna do,not when,not why. This plant has remained better off than most others while I've been here (1999) very few people have been forced out permanently by layoffs if any at all. Most that left took buyouts . So why all the fear mongering now?

Exactly. Also, there's already talk of bringing back C crew to U paint and body if orders continue to stay steady. They will be down several weeks this summer which will only further inflate their order bank. No one knows what the economy will do tomorrow. We may wake up in the morning and the stock market has crashed. It's the world we live in. Only thing we can do is prepare for the worst but we're all in it together. I think a lot of people (me included) are making significantly less money right now than we were this time last year. Naturally that makes people nervous and thus the rumors start flying...

[blackbird66]

May 8, 2017 7:54:41 GMT -5 beaner said:

Just out of curiosity: how long of a notice was there last time C Crew was eliminated in final? How long from when people caught wind, really?

First will likely be rolling down weeks. We will run a rotation of only two shifts. Each shift will work four weeks then be off two weeks. C crew would work either A or B covering the crew that's off.
Until you start seeing regular down weeks, don't worry about it.

[reedycreekbuc]

May 10, 2017 8:25:34 GMT -5 blackbird66 said:

May 8, 2017 7:54:41 GMT -5 beaner said:

Just out of curiosity: how long of a notice was there last time C Crew was eliminated in final? How long from when people caught wind, really?

First will likely be rolling down weeks. We will run a rotation of only two shifts. Each shift will work four weeks then be off two weeks. C crew would work either A or B covering the crew that's off.
Until you start seeing regular down weeks, don't worry about it.

Rotating shifts sucks! It is just postponing the inevitable.