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Post by TonyV on Sept 8, 2010 15:49:30 GMT -5
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Post by bo862 on Sept 10, 2010 9:50:08 GMT -5
Don’t take this as an attack on you Tony. I just have an issue with this authors claim. From the link above, money.cnn.com/2010/09/07/news/economy/coming_oil_glut.fortune/index.htm“More than anything, though, the looming oil surplus calls into question the concept of peak oil,”Peak oil is defined as a point in time when oil production can no longer be increased. Either the author does not understand peak oil or is trying to use this as a Red Herring. The amount of oil in stock has no correlation with peak oil. The authors claim is the same as a Ford employee saying “I have been employed for over a year without a single week of unemployment, so that calls into question the concept that we are in a recession”. The amount of oil stocks in one nation’s inventory does not affect peak oil, just as 1 persons employment status does not determine a recession. When I first read it, I thought the author may have just misunderstood the subject, but I started looking at his links and realized that some did not support his quotes. These 2 statements are linked to here www.pfcenergy.com/ . The link takes you to the home page of the company without providing access to the document that these quotes are taken. "In the last 18 months we've seen this big trend emerge," (What trend? He leaves this statement open for the reader to assume we are in a trend of increased oil production)
"We spent five to 10 years in a supply-constrained market, characterized by the growth of the BRIC countries [Brazil, Russia, India and China] and concerns over the security of supplies."Same thing with this links www.sigir.mil/publications/quarterlyreports/index.html pangea.stanford.edu/~abrandt/modeling.html His best link is to this one that provides data collected, I assume by the government. www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm His statement on this link is correct, but it is misleading. The way the article reads you may think that our oil stocks have gone through the roof. If you stop and look at the numbers the huge surplus he claims we have is not there. In Jan 1990 we had 1.6 billion barrels compared to our current 1.87 billion. This is less than 1% increase over 20 years. Here is a link with a line graph of the information the author linked www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WTTSTUS1&f=W Sure it’s an increase but certainly not one that “calls into question the concept of peak oil”. |
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Post by bo862 on Sept 10, 2010 10:02:32 GMT -5
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Post by TonyV on Sept 10, 2010 16:17:01 GMT -5
No offense taken. This is one of many I have been reading from people who 'speculate for wall street.' I have noticed a trend in the way they are leading investors away from that market. I do not understand their reasoning, I just find it entertaining.
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